When African Business magazine unveiled its much-cited “Africa’s Top 100 Banks 2025” rankings, Ethiopian banks seized the moment. Announcements trumpeted their ascent, celebrated their placement among the continent’s financial elites and promised validation of Ethiopia’s banking resilience. Yet beneath the fanfare lies a structural flaw: the data for Ethiopian banks are pegged to June 2024, not mid-2025. And in July 2024, Ethiopia floated the birr, triggering a collapse in its value rendering the USD denominated capital and asset figures effectively obsolete for current ranking logic.
The ranking report is transparent that it relies on financial statements as of June 2024 because data for June 2025 simply don’t yet exist. But the headlines, social media posts, and bank press releases have conflated the ranking with “2025 current strength,” implying contemporaneity. Many readers will assume these numbers reflect today’s reality. That assumption is dangerously misleading.
On July 29, 2024, the National Bank of Ethiopia shifted to a market-based foreign exchange system and devalued the birr by about 30 percent vs. the U.S. dollar. But that was merely the beginning. In the weeks that followed, the birr slid drastically effectively doubling its depreciation relative to June 2024 levels. By mid-August, the exchange rate was already more than 100 percent weaker than prior levels. In short: a capital base in USD terms that was stable in June 2024 became worth far less later in 2024 even if the underlying birr capital did not change.
Take Awash Bank, which the ranking attributes a Tier-1 capital of USD 507 million (74 billion birr under a “current” rate). But if one uses the June 2024 exchange rate, that USD figure corresponds to around 28 billion birr (not 74 billion). In other words, the implied birr capital under the ranking’s USD conversion is more than double what the bank’s actual birr capital would suggest under then-current rates. The dramatic depreciation skews the USD equivalency upward, giving a false coating of scale.
Because all Ethiopian banks in the ranking underwent the same conversion, their relative ordinal ranks remain internally consistent but their absolute USD standings are artifactual. If the rankings were redone in mid-2025 with updated exchange rates, many banks would collapse out of the top 100 cluster. _# Why this matter?
_1. Perception and confidence _
Stakeholders, investors, regulators, journalists may read these rankings as proof that Ethiopia’s banking sector is competing at continental stage. But the reality is more fragile: much of the “gain” is exchange-rate distortion, not real growth in equity or assets.
2. Capital flow incentives and risk mispricing
If a diaspora investor chase Ethiopian banks on the basis of outdated USD valuations, they may be blindsided by currency risk, hidden capital shortfalls, or inflation eroding real returns.
3. Future shock: 2026 rankings may vanish
By the time African Business publishes its 2026 ranking (presumably based on June 2025 data), the birr’s continued depreciation may eviscerate the USD value of Ethiopian banks’ metrics, making none of them viable in the top 100 if the benchmark threshold is not correspondingly adjusted.
Ethiopia’s banks have good reason to celebrate their inclusion in continental rankings; regional expansion, deposit growth, and domestic dominance are real achievements. But the rhetoric must be tempered. The 2025 ranking is not a pure reflection of 2025 scale it is a snapshot of June 2024 capital evaluated through mid-2025 exchange conditions. In a world of abrupt currency regime change, such snapshots can mislead. It’s not enough to celebrate “Africa’s Top 100” status analysts, investors, and the public must demand clarity, caveats, and context. If not, the shiny headlines risk becoming a mirage when the next down-draft in currency exposes the illusion.