Ethiopia’s banks are reporting record growth in Birr terms. But once you adjust for the currency’s steep devaluation, the story changes completely. In dollar terms, the sector isn’t expanding it’s shrinking.
Ethiopia’s banks are reporting record growth in Birr terms. But once you adjust for the currency’s steep devaluation, the story changes completely. In dollar terms, the sector isn’t expanding it’s shrinking.
Ethiopia extended limits on bank lending growth and kept its policy rate unchanged as policymakers seek to lock in declining inflation while guarding against new risks from rising global oil prices.
Ethiopia’s birr weakened in the latest National Bank FX auction as rising demand for dollars pushed the cut-off rate to 157.02 per USD, up from 155.88 two weeks earlier. Total bids surged to $241.5 million while supply remained capped at $70 million, underscoring persistent foreign-exchange shortages and growing pressure on the currency.
Ethiopia’s Treasury bill yields tumbled over six weeks as excess liquidity surged in the banking system after regulators delayed lifting credit growth caps. The sharp drop signals shifting monetary conditions and highlights how policy constraints are reshaping short-term interest rates in the country’s emerging debt market.
Hibret Bank grew its balance sheet, yet profitability plunged highlighting the hidden cost of FX reform and tighter regulation in Ethiopia’s banking sector.
Ethiopia’s central bank is injecting $50m into the market this week, giving banks brief FX relief but the move also underscores the deeper structural shortages and persistent parallel-market pressures still weighing on the economy.
Ethiopia’s biweekly FX auctions have become a rare anchor in a volatile currency market. The August 5 auction showed how timely injections of liquidity can calm both official and parallel rates. But narrowing the stubborn gap requires more than consistency it calls for scaled-up auctions, stronger remittance incentives, and a united push from banks and government. Done right, this approach could shift hard currency back to official channels, rebuild reserves, and gradually erode the parallel market’s grip.
